In this post, we share highlights of our conversation with Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University and a senior advisor at Whiteboard Advisors, about the budget realities facing school districts with federal relief funds gone. She suggests that with previous staff expansion as a result of Covid relief funds, and now with declining student enrollment, districts might seize the opportunity to realign resources and right-size their workforce instead of simply shrinking with attrition.
The Post-Relief Challenge: Redesign or Shrink Back
Saga Education: Now that federal relief funds are gone, what’s the structural reality that districts are facing? And what does it take to restructure the budget of a district, especially if they’re looking to sustain programs or interventions that are helping students in critical areas like math and reading?
Marguerite Roza: With the post-pandemic relief funds, districts did a lot of quick hiring, promoting strong teachers to roles like coaches and specialists, and hiring new teachers and paraprofessionals. A couple of things are catching up with that: declining student enrollment (leading to lower revenues) and the lack of corresponding improvement in math and reading scores despite the increase in staff.
Districts face a decision: shrink via attrition or redesign the system to invest in strategies that deliver better student outcomes. The opportunity is to redeploy people into higher-impact roles, such as tutoring, and restaff classrooms with the strongest talent. Districts’ final decisions should be based on where staff has been added, enrollment trends, current outcomes, and what the district wants to protect to support student learning.
Data Patterns: The Key to Identifying Value
Saga Education: What numbers should superintendents look at or prioritize to make those decisions about where people go?
District leaders should examine their data over time, as patterns vary widely by district, which is the goal behind Edunomics Lab’s WANDA tool. If a district has seen significant growth in the “middle layer” of staff such as specialists, paraprofessionals, coaches, or assistant principals, they should ask if they are getting value from that talent and if student outcomes are increasing as a result.
Instead of laying off the “middle layer,” districts can redeploy employees to other roles, including the classroom, since labor agreements often permit this as long as pay is unaffected. For example, central office staff hired for curriculum rollout or HR expansion could potentially be redeployed back to schools in different roles now that hiring has slowed.
Evaluating Staffing: Asking the $100K Question
Saga Education: What questions should leaders ask about those roles before deciding whether to retain, reduce, or redeploy them?
Marguerite Roza: District leaders should approach spending with the challenge: “If you have $100,000 to spend, what do you think will get the most number of students from not at grade level to grade level in math or reading?”
It’s critical to make a specific prediction about how many students will be moved out of remedial categories, rather than just focusing on general percentage gains. Since 80 to 90% of public education spending is on labor, redeploying current employees who may not be as successful in the complex role of classroom teaching but could excel in roles like tutoring can be a powerful way to secure better student outcomes.
Regrets: We Will Again Not Do Enough to Protect Our Low-Income Students & Schools
Saga Education: What are school districts going to regret in five years from now with the staffing and budget decisions that they make?
Marguerite Roza: Districts may regret several costly decisions, including locking in big pay raises for senior teachers, offering early retirement incentives to very expensive employees, and being forced to lay off new, diverse teachers due to last-in, first-out rules. These seniority-based layoff policies are particularly painful because a district must lay off two new teachers to save one senior teacher.
An additional regret for some will be spending down financial reserves to hold on to staff temporarily, which eliminates the financial cushion needed for future unexpected events and can lead to a downward spiral for the district.
Ultimately, the greatest regret may be failing to protect low-income schools and students, who historically receive the “short end of the stick” during financial crises, widening the performance gap between high and low performers.
Prioritizing Communication: The "Hard Job" of Leadership
Saga: These kinds of decisions are often politically and emotionally charged. What is a district leader to do when they’re in that situation of trying to make these decisions and communicate that to their constituents?
Marguerite Roza: Being a district leader right now is a really hard job, as any choice will likely make someone unhappy. People can accept tough decisions, even school closures, but they must be brought along.
The leader’s job is to explain what is at stake, such as losing extracurriculars, tutoring, AP classes, athletics, access to a nurse or counselor if resources are spread too thinly across too many schools. Leaders must avoid prioritizing staff over student needs as doing so could erode trust from parents.
Waiting until a plan is perfectly finalized is a mistake. Instead, leaders must communicate early with principals, staff, and parents, presenting potential cuts (including closing schools and raising class sizes) to show how serious the situation is, and then soliciting input on what the community wants to protect.
Focusing on Student Outcomes: The Predictors of Life
Saga Education: That probably goes back to reminding communities about a focus on the student outcomes.
Marguerite Roza: District leaders must carefully monitor early reading outcomes. If kids aren’t reading at grade level by the third grade, they cannot unlock everything else the education system offers. And leaders also need to be hyperfocused on ensuring students reach grade level in math by 8th grade. Achieving this grade-level math proficiency is a predictor of life outcomes, influencing whether students pursue higher education, what careers they choose, their later-in-life earnings, their lifespan, and the state’s future economy. Leaders must be honest with parents on the role that math proficiency plays in life outcomes, in order to grow support for spending aligned with what should be shared goals for students.
Key Takeaway from Saga Education: A Strategic Role for Tutoring
Roza’s analysis points to a broader shift that districts are grappling with. District leaders facing budget constraints often must solve multiple challenges at once: improving student outcomes, addressing declining enrollment and attendance, supporting burned-out teachers, navigating teacher shortages, and managing tight budgets.
High-impact tutoring has emerged as a strategy that supports progress across these priorities. Decades of research show that consistent, relationship-based tutoring can help students accelerate learning, rebuild confidence in math and reading, and stay engaged in school.
When students receive this kind of support, districts often see stronger academic growth, improved attendance and engagement, and more students staying on track toward graduation. That matters for students’ long-term opportunities. Importantly, it helps districts maintain enrollment and preserves the funding that would otherwise be lost when students drop out.
For many districts, the conversation about tutoring is shifting from a pandemic recovery tool to a key component of their instructional strategy.
If you’re interested in how others are approaching high-impact tutoring amid today’s challenges, Saga is working alongside districts, states, and partners to share what’s being learned about making it work at scale. Contact us to learn more.